Institutional-grade macro and economic intelligence, built on framework and process, with the intellectual honesty the sell-side has forgotten.
The Watch, research plus Pharos, is $500 a year (about $42 a month), or $50 month-to-month. The Diagnostic Dozen and the free Notes stay open to everyone.
One thesis, taken all the way down, across the full framework.
The tactical read on the print that just hit. One idea, five charts.
The forward outlook, and where the risk sits.
The cycle, chart by chart. The data, laid out to be looked at.
One lesser-discussed mechanic or relationship, explained against our own data. About ten minutes, and free.
There are two economies now. The one that trades the cycle, and the one that lives inside it. We built one framework for both.
Hedge funds, RIAs, family offices, and endowments who need the read and the risk posture, from published research to a strategist on call.
See advisor / CIO services →CEOs, CFOs, and founders whose capex, hiring, and pricing decisions hinge on the macro. We translate the framework into your decisions.
See operator service →Twelve macro pillars, organized into three engines. Each captures a distinct dimension of the cycle. Together they feed a layered risk architecture that combines quantitative rigor with experienced judgment.
The real economy. Labor flows, price composition, growth momentum, and the four end-markets that move underneath the cycle.
The plumbing. Treasury fiscal dynamics, credit and financial conditions, and the Fed liquidity regime that sits upstream of every risk asset.
Price-action internals and positioning. Breadth, leadership, divergence, sentiment, and the tape's read on what is consensus versus variant.
The machine builds the map. The judgment makes the call.
Thesis-driven. Three-engine convergence finds the opportunity, conviction scoring sets the size, and dual stops manage the risk. When the macro picture is clear, we lean in.
Markets do not wait for the macro to catch up. When the framework signals caution and strong trends are running, we participate through price, with tighter risk management.
When neither the thesis nor the technical picture supports risk, we hold cash. A meaningful cash allocation is discipline, not a failure of imagination. The best trade is sometimes no trade.
The Diagnostic Dozen, the methodology, and the free Notes stay open to everyone. Paid membership adds the research, the terminal, and the book. We call it the Watch.
The morning note and deck, the twelve Diagnostic Dozen boards, the pillar tear sheets.
Get the Morning MonitorPrefer monthly? $20/moExisting subscribers keep their rate. Teams of five or more take 20% off, and CSA or soft-dollar payment is fine: research@lighthousemacro.com. Pharos sign-in uses the email on your subscription.
From published research to a strategist on retainer. Same framework, different depth of engagement.
Macro intelligence for firms that need sophisticated research and a strategist on call. Structured to fit your workflow, not the other way around.
Boutique macro research and advisory. Non-consensus variant perception with direct strategist access.
A part-time member of your leadership team. Investment-committee participation, asset allocation, and client-facing macro strategy.
Macro intelligence for leadership teams making capital, hiring, and strategy decisions. We translate framework signals into the commercial implications that drive your P&L.
“Simply outstanding work that I have not seen elsewhere. This may be the best analysis I’ve ever read on the k-shaped bifurcation of the US consumer. Absolute masterclass.”
Tim PierottiChief Investment Officer, WealthVest
“This valuable (highly readable!) piece takes the next step by connecting other views of wealth to their implications for spending.”
Jeff HorwichSenior Economics Writer, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
“Bob’s work is above and beyond. You will not only see a multi-factor view supported by data, you will learn how to see the market through this lens. His writing is instructional.”
MikeGLabsSubscriber
Founder & Macro Strategist. Macro and economic intelligence for markets and operators.
"The Lighthouse" was the name of Bob's house in college, where he first began studying finance and economics. Over the years it evolved into a research firm built on quantitative rigor and systematic macro analysis, serving portfolio managers, advisory firms, and business leaders who need to understand what is actually happening beneath the headlines.
Bob's neurodivergent wiring is core to the firm's edge. Most analysts specialize in one domain. His ADHD-driven intellectual restlessness pushes him across the full macro landscape, from Fed plumbing to labor economics to credit markets to Treasury microstructure to crypto integration and quantitative modeling. The result is depth across domains. And with it, the ability to see connections specialists miss by staying in silos.
The Diagnostic Dozen is the systematic base: twelve pillars, one regime read, computed every day. The discretion sits on top. The base keeps us honest. The judgment keeps us adaptive.
Institutional-grade macro, in your inbox.