The data lights the way. We follow. This is Macro, Illuminated.

Institutional-grade macro and economic intelligence, built on framework and process, with the intellectual honesty the sell-side has forgotten.

Latest appearanceHow To Trade The New Warsh FedForward Guidance · Blockworks · June 2026
Promoted byVítor Constâncio, former Vice-President of the European Central Bank
Featured inFinancial Times Alphaville reading list
// Latest research

What we published this week

Read on Substack →
// Who we serve

Two economies, one framework

There are two economies now. The one that trades the cycle, and the one that lives inside it. We built one framework for both.

Advisors · Allocators · CIOs

You position capital against the cycle.

Hedge funds, RIAs, family offices, and endowments who need the read and the risk posture, from published research to a strategist on call.

See advisor / CIO services →

Operators · Leadership

You make the calls inside the cycle.

CEOs, CFOs, and founders whose capex, hiring, and pricing decisions hinge on the macro. We translate the framework into your decisions.

See operator service →

// The framework

The Diagnostic Dozen

Twelve macro pillars, organized into three engines. Each captures a distinct dimension of the cycle. Together they feed a layered risk architecture that combines quantitative rigor with experienced judgment.

Explore all 12 pillars →
// 017 pillars

Macro Dynamics

The real economy. Labor flows, price composition, growth momentum, and the four end-markets that move underneath the cycle.

  • Labor · Prices · Growth
  • Housing · Consumer · Business · Trade
// 023 pillars

Monetary Mechanics

The plumbing. Treasury fiscal dynamics, credit and financial conditions, and the Fed liquidity regime that sits upstream of every risk asset.

  • Government · Financial
  • Plumbing
// 032 pillars

Market Structure

Price-action internals and positioning. Breadth, leadership, divergence, sentiment, and the tape's read on what is consensus versus variant.

  • Market Structure
  • Sentiment
01Labor+0.44NEUTRAL
02Prices-0.65DEFLATIONARY
03Growth+1.20STRONG GROWTH
04Housing-0.60WEAK
05Consumer-0.73STRESSED
06Business+0.94EXPANSION
07Trade-1.28DOLLAR SQUEEZE
08Government+1.71FISCAL CRISIS
09Financial-0.58TIGHT
10Plumbing-0.48NEUTRAL
11Structure-1.10BEARISH
12Sentiment-0.03NEUTRAL
As of 2026-10-01 · Lighthouse MacroHow we build it →
// The process

Quantitative foundation, human judgment

The machine builds the map. The judgment makes the call.

Macro-Driven Positioning

Thesis-driven. Three-engine convergence finds the opportunity, conviction scoring sets the size, and dual stops manage the risk. When the macro picture is clear, we lean in.

Technical Adaptability

Markets do not wait for the macro to catch up. When the framework signals caution and strong trends are running, we participate through price, with tighter risk management.

Cash as a Position

When neither the thesis nor the technical picture supports risk, we hold cash. A meaningful cash allocation is discipline, not a failure of imagination. The best trade is sometimes no trade.

// Pharos

All the research, plus the terminal it is written from.

  • Every live board across the twelve pillars and six asset classes
  • 60+ proprietary indicators with published thresholds
  • The regime call and the House View allocation stance
  • Recession probability and the nowcasts
  • The research archive, inside the terminal
// For individuals

Join the Watch.

The Diagnostic Dozen, the methodology, and the free Notes stay open to everyone. Paid membership adds the research, the terminal, and the book.

// Free

The Public Read

$0 forever
  • The Diagnostic Dozen, all twelve pillars in full
  • Methodology and published thresholds
  • The live regime tiles on this page
  • Free Notes and the Beacon preview, by email
Join free
// Research Only

The Research

$495 a year
  • The Beacon, weekly long-form
  • The Beam, twice a week
  • The Horizon, the monthly outlook
  • The Chartbook, 50 to 100 charts
  • The full archive
Get the research →
// Complete

Research + Pharos

$750 a year
  • All the research
  • Pharos: every live board
  • 60+ proprietary indicators
  • The regime call and the House View
  • Crosscurrents, the live book: trade log and weights
Join the Watch →
// Founding

The Watch™

$1,500 a year
  • Everything in Research + Pharos
  • A quarterly meeting built around your book or your business
  • The live composites and formulas
Become a founding member →

Existing subscribers keep their rate. Teams of five or more take 20% off, and CSA or soft-dollar payment is fine: research@lighthousemacro.com. Pharos sign-in uses the email on your subscription.

// For firms and operators

Research & advisory

From published research to a strategist on retainer. Same framework, different depth of engagement.

advisory@lighthousemacro.com →
// RIAs · Family offices

Advisor

From $4,000 a month

Macro intelligence for firms that need sophisticated research and a strategist on call. Structured to fit your workflow, not the other way around.

  • Full research suite
  • Model allocation guidance
  • Regular strategy calls
  • Client-facing presentation materials
  • Direct strategist access for economic questions
Inquire
// Funds · Allocators · Endowments

Institutional

Priced to scope

Boutique macro research and advisory. Non-consensus variant perception with direct strategist access.

  • Complete research suite with priority delivery
  • Quarterly strategy calls
  • Priority email access
  • Bespoke research projects
  • CSA / soft-dollar payment compatible
Inquire
// RIAs $200M-$2B AUM

Fractional CIO

Priced to scope

A part-time member of your leadership team. Investment-committee participation, asset allocation, and client-facing macro strategy.

  • Investment-committee prep and attendance
  • Model portfolio review
  • Quarterly market outlook ghostwriting
  • Crisis access during volatility events
  • Prospect meeting participation
Inquire
// CEOs · CFOs · Founders · Ops leaders

Operator

From $2,500 a month

Macro intelligence for leadership teams making capital, hiring, and strategy decisions. We translate framework signals into the commercial implications that drive your P&L.

  • Quarterly cycle briefing tailored to your sector
  • Capex and hiring guidance against the labor and credit pillars
  • Demand and pricing outlook for your end markets
  • Board and management presentation support
  • Direct strategist access for time-sensitive decisions
Inquire
// Recognition

In the words of the people who read it

“Simply outstanding work that I have not seen elsewhere. This may be the best analysis I’ve ever read on the k-shaped bifurcation of the US consumer. Absolute masterclass.”
Tim PierottiChief Investment Officer, WealthVest
“This valuable (highly readable!) piece takes the next step by connecting other views of wealth to their implications for spending.”
Jeff HorwichSenior Economics Writer, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
“Bob’s work is above and beyond. You will not only see a multi-factor view supported by data, you will learn how to see the market through this lens. His writing is instructional.”
MikeGLabsSubscriber
// The author

Bob Sheehan, CFA, CMT

Founder & Macro Strategist. Macro and economic intelligence for markets and operators.

"The Lighthouse" was the name of Bob's house in college, where he first began studying finance and economics. Over the years it evolved into a research firm built on quantitative rigor and systematic macro analysis, serving portfolio managers, advisory firms, and business leaders who need to understand what is actually happening beneath the headlines.

Bob's neurodivergent wiring is core to the firm's edge. Most analysts specialize in one domain. His ADHD-driven intellectual restlessness pushes him across the full macro landscape, from Fed plumbing to labor economics to credit markets to Treasury microstructure to crypto integration and quantitative modeling. The result is depth across domains. And with it, the ability to see connections specialists miss by staying in silos.

The machine builds the map. The judgment makes the call.The Diagnostic Dozen is the systematic base: twelve pillars, one regime read, computed every day. The discretion sits on top. The base keeps us honest. The judgment keeps us adaptive.
Bob Sheehan, CFA, CMT
VP, Data & AnalyticsEquiLend
Senior Research AnalystStrom Capital Management
Macro Research AnalystTrahan Macro Research
Associate Portfolio ManagerBank of America Private Bank

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