Institutional-grade macro and economic intelligence, built on framework and process, with the intellectual honesty the sell-side has forgotten.
There are two economies now. The one that trades the cycle, and the one that lives inside it. We built one framework for both.
Hedge funds, RIAs, family offices, and endowments who need the read and the risk posture, from published research to a strategist on call.
See advisor / CIO services →CEOs, CFOs, and founders whose capex, hiring, and pricing decisions hinge on the macro. We translate the framework into your decisions.
See operator service →Twelve macro pillars, organized into three engines. Each captures a distinct dimension of the cycle. Together they feed a layered risk architecture that combines quantitative rigor with experienced judgment.
The real economy. Labor flows, price composition, growth momentum, and the four end-markets that move underneath the cycle.
The plumbing. Treasury fiscal dynamics, credit and financial conditions, and the Fed liquidity regime that sits upstream of every risk asset.
Price-action internals and positioning. Breadth, leadership, divergence, sentiment, and the tape's read on what is consensus versus variant.
A public read of the engine. Master tiles set the regime. The twelve pillars show where the cycle is breathing. Subscribers get the full indicator stack, proxy tiers, and confidence bands.
State a thesis. State the conditions that would break it. That tension, conviction and humility held together, is the whole discipline. Six principles run underneath everything we publish.
A good process with a bad outcome is acceptable. A bad process with a good outcome is dangerous. We judge decisions at the time they are made, with the information available. Results are feedback, not validation.
We do not predict. We read the cycle and position accordingly. The framework tells us which regime we are in. The regime tells us how to size risk.
The level matters less than the direction. We track flows through labor, credit, and the financial system. Change, not state, is what moves prices.
Some shops cultivate an air of mystery. We show our work. We explain what we are watching, why it matters, and what would change our mind.
Diversification is for capital preservation. Alpha comes from concentration. We run concentrated, high-conviction books. Thirty positions is thirty opinions you are not sure about.
Being right and consensus is low value. Being right and non-consensus is where the returns come from. We look for the gaps between market pricing and the framework's signal.
The machine builds the map. The judgment makes the call.
The Diagnostic Dozen is the systematic base: twelve pillars, one regime read, computed every day. The discretion sits on top. The base keeps us honest. The judgment keeps us adaptive.
Thesis-driven. Three-engine convergence finds the opportunity, conviction scoring sets the size, and dual stops manage the risk. When the macro picture is clear, we lean in.
Markets do not wait for the macro to catch up. When the framework signals caution and strong trends are running, we participate through price, with tighter risk management.
When neither the thesis nor the technical picture supports risk, we hold cash. A meaningful cash allocation is discipline, not a failure of imagination. The best trade is sometimes no trade.
The framework runs a real book. It is funded and live, auditable in real time, and judged the way it should be: risk-adjusted, against QAI. The edge is downside protection, not a return-chase. Dollar amounts are withheld by design.
The book is positioned with the Diagnostic Dozen and benchmarked against QAI on the metrics that reward surviving the tape, not just riding it. The full position book, thesis tags, and live performance publish on the model portfolio.
SEE THE LIVE BOOK ↗// Allocation and performance figures publish as percentages and risk-adjusted ratios only. Position size, dollar amounts, and account equity are withheld by design. Not investment advice.
From published research to a strategist on retainer. Same framework, different depth of engagement.
Macro intelligence for firms that need sophisticated research and a strategist on call. Structured to fit your workflow, not the other way around.
Boutique macro research and advisory. Non-consensus variant perception with direct strategist access.
A part-time member of your leadership team. Investment-committee participation, asset allocation, and client-facing macro strategy.
Macro intelligence for leadership teams making capital, hiring, and strategy decisions. We translate framework signals into the commercial implications that drive your P&L.
Pulled live from the publication feed: Horizon, Beacon, Beam, Chartbook, and the Diagnostic Dozen pillars. Click through to read each piece natively on-site.
June opened with the market doing the one thing it only does at turns.
Read on-site →The yield back-up is real and it is fiscal, not a price scare.
The leading reads were flashing for weeks while credit and volatility slept.
Systematic macro analysis built on the Diagnostic Dozen. A free educational base, plus a full paid stack: the Note, the Beam, the Beacon, the Chartbook, and the Horizon.
Educational series teaching the complete macro framework. One deep-dive per pillar with 8 to 10 charts.
One observation, one chart, the data behind it. 150 words built for breadth and quick reads. The free-tier entry point.
Mid-week paid insight pressure-testing a single thread from the cycle. 750 words and five charts in a fixed six-section template.
Long-form Sunday analysis. 3,000 to 4,000 words synthesizing what moved across the 12 pillars and what it means for positioning.
50 to 75 institutional-quality charts covering the full macro landscape. A visual diagnostic across all 12 pillars.
Strategic forward outlook. Key themes, risk matrix, invalidation criteria, and tactical implications. The first Monday of each month.
Where the work has landed, in the words of the people who read it.
Founder & Macro Strategist. Macro and economic intelligence for markets and operators.
"The Lighthouse" was the name of Bob's house in college, where he first began studying finance and economics. Over the years it evolved into a research firm built on quantitative rigor and systematic macro analysis, serving portfolio managers, advisory firms, and business leaders who need to understand what is actually happening beneath the headlines.
Bob's neurodivergent wiring is core to the firm's edge. Most analysts specialize in one domain. His ADHD-driven intellectual restlessness pushes him across the full macro landscape, from Fed plumbing to labor economics to credit markets to Treasury microstructure to crypto integration and quantitative modeling. The result is depth across domains. And with it, the ability to see connections specialists miss by staying in silos.
Whether you are an advisory firm exploring research access, a business leader making capital decisions, or an allocator looking for a strategist on call, pick the line that fits.
For service inquiries: Operator, Advisor, Institutional, Fractional CIO.
The Beacon every Sunday, free. Beams twice a week, the Horizon monthly, and the Chartbook for subscribers. Institutional-grade macro, in your inbox.
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