The Beacon | It's Getting Spooky
The Hidden Transition
TL;DR
Surface calm, shrinking cushion: funding looks orderly today, but the Federal Reserve’s Overnight Reverse Repurchase Facility (ON RRP) and bank reserves — our system’s shock absorbers — are materially thinner. Leading labor flows (quits, hires/ quits, hours worked) are rolling over even with unemployment ~4%, signaling decelerating labor momentum. …
