The Chartbook - November 23, 2025
The Divergence Widens
Equities sit near record highs while leading indicators continue their steep decline. The divergence is widening, not narrowing.
This week’s Chartbook documents the divergence and what breaks first.
Inside
Section I: Proprietary Systemic Risk Indicators
My Macro Risk Index (MRI) sits at +0.06σ, near neutral on the surface. But the composite masks dangerous offsetting forces. This week’s focus centers on the three highest-stress components:
Liquidity Cushion Index: –1.45σ (critically depleted)
Labor Fragility Index: +0.57σ (moderately elevated)
Yield-Funding Stress: +0.97σ (approaching warning threshold)
The MRI tracks 6 components across macro, monetary, and technical pillars. Full breakdowns in the Chartbook.
The RRP facility has collapsed from $2.5T to under $300B. Banking system liquidity is 1.5 standard deviations below average. This is the primary systemic risk. Watch for a –2σ break triggering Fed intervention.
Meanwhile, two textbook late-cycle labor divergences are flashing:
Payrolls stable while quits collapsed 33%
Hours growth –0.5% YoY vs employment +1.2% (1.7pp divergence)
Both patterns preceded the 2000 and 2007 recessions by ~6 months.
Section II: Global Macro Intelligence
The AI infrastructure buildout remains intact. Semiconductor equipment billings +28% YoY, Taiwan exports +40%. But hyperscaler capex efficiency has collapsed 75% (11K → 2.5K compute per dollar). Diminishing returns are emerging. This suggests an AI capex peak 2–4 quarters out.
Enterprise adoption validates the secular thesis: 55% of companies using or planning AI. Oracle RPO exploded from $140B to $460B. Multi-year committed revenue essentially guaranteed.
The U.S. is winning the AI talent war (+15 net inflow per 10K vs China’s –8 outflow) and holds 45% of global AI patents with higher citation impact. Talent concentration = innovation advantage. This justifies U.S. AI company premium valuations.
Section III: Technical Analysis & Positioning
Coverage on NVDA, ASML, TSM, MSFT, JPM, GS, COIN, MSTR, MARA, HYG with:
Technical levels
Relative strength diagnostics
Risk/reward setups
Cycle-consistent interpretation across assets
Credit markets (HYG) are near 52-week highs despite rising macro risks. Historically falls 20–30% in recessions. HYG puts = cheap protection?
Data Partnership
Select global macro datasets in this Chartbook leverage the MacroMicro × Lighthouse Macro integration. All proprietary indicators (including the MRI suite, liquidity composites, labor market systems, and positioning frameworks) are developed internally using Lighthouse Macro’s proprietary methodology.
This Week’s Friday Chartbook is Ungated
I want every prospective subscriber to see exactly what you’re getting: institutional-grade macro analysis, proprietary indicators, and zero filler.
If this is valuable to you, lock in lifetime founding member access before December 31st or after the first 50 members—whichever comes first.
Pricing:
Founding Lifetime: $400 (locked forever)
Annual: $300 (save $60)
Monthly: $30
Join The Watch.
Founding lifetime locks your rate permanently—even if you cancel and resubscribe later. Annual and monthly subscribers are locked at their current rate as long as they stay subscribed. When I raise prices, only founding members are grandfathered unconditionally.
This offer closes December 31st, 2025, or after 50 founding members—whichever comes first.
To the early supporters who subscribed before any paywall: thank you. You’re locked in at your current rates as long as you’re here.
— Bob
P.S. For institutional clients seeking bespoke macro research or portfolio advisory, I offer custom, tailored engagements as I mentioned in my note from earlier this week (https://shorturl.at/CrU4w). Please reach out.
MACRO, ILLUMINATED.
 | A guest post by
|
Thanks for the analysis, Bob. How did you come up with " But hyperscaler capex efficiency has collapsed 75% (11K → 2.5K compute per dollar)."? Everything I'm reading about dollar per token shows significant deflation when adjusted for quality.