The Vanishing Job-Hopper Premium

The Grass Is No Longer Greener: A Data-Driven Analysis of Today's Labor Market

Lighthouse Macro and Bob Sheehan, CFA, CMT

Mar 14, 2025

∙ Paid

Executive Summary

The conventional wisdom that changing jobs leads to significantly higher wages is being challenged by recent data. As of early 2025, the wage premium for job-switchers has narrowed to just 0.2 percentage points—a dramatic departure from historical norms. This analysis explores the data behind this shift, examines potential causes, and c…

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