Lighthouse Macro

Lighthouse Macro

From Foundations to Fault Lines — Part I

Cracks in the Foundation

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Lighthouse Macro
Aug 12, 2025
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In this series:

  • Part I: Cracks in the Foundations

  • Part II: Collateral Fragility

  • Part III: Seemingly Stable, Systemically Stressed

The foundation of demand for U.S. Treasuries, particularly at the long end of the curve, is showing signs of structural weakness. Yesterday's 10-year auction tailed 1.125 basis points—meaning it sold at a higher yield than expect…

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